Lancet Public Health. 2026 Jul 20:S2468-2667(26)00141-6. doi: 10.1016/S2468-2667(26)00141-6. Online ahead of print.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Road injuries are a leading cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide. Years of international efforts have aimed to strengthen policy engagement, including the 2020 UN General Assembly's proclamation of the Second Decade of Action for Road Safety (2021-30), targeting a 50% reduction in road traffic deaths and serious injuries by 2030. The aim of this study is to provide estimates to monitor progress and identify intervention gaps.
METHODS: As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2023, we estimated incidence, mortality, and morbidity of road injuries for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2023. Four road injury types and 47 nature-of-injury categories were examined. Morbidity and mortality data from clinical records, vital registration, and police reports were harmonised using meta-analytic techniques to ensure consistency and correct for systematic bias. Incidence was modelled with the meta-regression tool Disease Modelling-Meta-Regression version 2.1 and cause-specific mortality with the Cause of Death Ensemble model, both incorporating location-specific covariates to support interpolation. Years of life lived with disability (YLDs) were estimated from the prevalence and severity of the nature of road injury, and years of life lost (YLLs) from the number of cause-specific deaths multiplied by the standard life expectancy at the age of death. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were the sum of YLLs and YLDs. All metrics were calculated with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).
FINDINGS: In 2023, there were 50·9 million (95% UI 46·1-56·1) road injury incident cases, 1·34 million (1·04-1·58) deaths, and 75·3 million (59·8-89·2) DALYs globally. Road injuries were the leading global cause of death among males aged 10-39 years. Between 1990 and 2023, age-standardised incidence decreased by 38·3% (95% UI 36·9-39·7) and mortality decreased by 32·3% (6·1-49·0), but progress varied widely by World Bank income group. Mortality in low-income countries (43·8 [95% UI 31·7-56·0] deaths per 100 000 population) was approximately six times higher than in high-income countries (7·5 [7·1-7·9] deaths per 100 000), despite the high-income countries showing the highest age-standardised incidence rates (858·1 [95% UI 781·9-947·1] cases per 100 000). In the past decade, many countries achieved notable reductions in road injuries, but others, including Ghana and the USA, saw increases. More severe injuries tended to occur in low-income and middle-income countries.
INTERPRETATION: Although global incidence, mortality, and DALY rates from road injuries have declined, progress remains uneven, with pronounced disparities across income groups reflecting systemic inadequacies in infrastructure, vehicle standards, enforcement, and post-crash care. Strengthening emergency response, improving road design, enforcing safety measures, and adapting policies to the evolving demographics remain essential.
FUNDING: Gates Foundation.
PMID:42476159 | DOI:10.1016/S2468-2667(26)00141-6