JACC Asia. 2026 Oct 14:S2772-3747(26)00809-4. doi: 10.1016/j.jacasi.2026.08.040. Online ahead of print.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) imposes cardiovascular stress through intermittent hypoxia and event-related responses. Whether heart rate surge adds prognostic information beyond hypoxic burden (HB) remains unclear.
OBJECTIVES: The authors aimed to evaluate heart rate surge for cardiovascular mortality and its incremental value beyond HB in OSA.
METHODS: We analyzed 4,790 participants from a community-based cohort with overnight polysomnography. Heart rate surge was defined as peak heart rate within the event-aligned window minus mean heart rate during the 60-second pre-event baseline. Associations with cardiovascular mortality were assessed using Cox models. Incremental prognostic value was evaluated by C-index, net reclassification improvement (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement.
RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 11.6 years (IQR: 10.4-12.4), 334/4,790 participants (7.0%) died of cardiovascular causes. Heart rate surge was weakly correlated with HB (Spearman ρ = 0.08; 95% CI: 0.04-0.10). The highest vs lowest heart rate surge quintile was associated with higher cardiovascular mortality risk (HR: 3.00; 95% CI: 2.10-4.30; P < 0.001) and each 1-SD increment was associated with a 27% higher risk (HR: 1.27; 95% CI: 1.19-1.35). Participants with elevated HB and heart rate surge had the highest risk (HR: 2.65; 95% CI: 1.79-3.92). Adding heart rate surge increased the C-index from 0.77 (95% CI: 0.74-0.79) to 0.81 (95% CI: 0.79-0.83), with ΔC of 0.04 (95% CI: 0.03-0.06), continuous NRI of 0.62 (95% CI: 0.51-0.74), categorical NRI of 0.16 (95% CI: 0.09-0.24), and integrated discrimination improvement of 0.05 (95% CI: 0.04-0.06).
CONCLUSIONS: Heart rate surge was independently associated with cardiovascular mortality and improved risk stratification beyond HB in OSA.
PMID:42909449 | DOI:10.1016/j.jacasi.2026.08.040