QJM. 2026 Jun 10:hcag147. doi: 10.1093/qjmed/hcag147. Online ahead of print.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Older adults are an important group affected by both non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and ambient fine particulate matter pollution (ambient PM2.5). This study aimed to estimate the disease burden of NCDs attributable to ambient PM2.5 among adults aged 65 years and older from 1990 to 2021 globally, and forecast to 2031.
METHODS: The data were extracted from Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021 project. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was used to measure the temporal trend. The Bayesian APC model was employed to predict the disease burden.
RESULTS: In 2021, there were an estimated 3.32 million NCDs deaths and 56.30 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to ambient PM2.5 among older adults, globally, with cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) being the leading cause. From 1990 to 2021, the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) showed a downward trend, with EAPC of -0.33 (95% CI: -0.45-0.21) and -0.17 (95% CI: -0.2-0.15). But the numbers of deaths and DALYs increased by125.56% and 127.05%, respectively. Males, elderly and the middle the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) region had a greater burden. Finally, only despite a slight increase in both ASMR and ASDR in the next decade, the numbers of deaths and DALYs would increase by over 50%.
CONCLUSIONS: The numbers of deaths and DALYs for NCDs attributable to ambient PM2.5 among older adults showed an upward trend globally in the past 31 years, and projected to increase in the next decade. Therefore, it is necessary to introduce targeted policies.
PMID:42268677 | DOI:10.1093/qjmed/hcag147