Rheumatol Int. 2026 Jun 22;46(7):161. doi: 10.1007/s00296-026-06181-6.
ABSTRACT
Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is associated with increased mortality compared with the general population, with outcomes influenced by ethnicity and organ involvement. Data from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) remain limited, particularly regarding long-term survival and mortality predictors. To estimate and compare all-cause mortality and survival rates among adult patients with SLE in the MENA region and identify predictors of mortality. A systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies reporting survival and mortality in patients with SLE in the MENA region was conducted. Eligible studies were identified through a comprehensive database search and screened according to PRISMA guidelines. Data on treatment exposures and clinical predictors of mortality were extracted. Twelve cohort studies, including 3,478 adults with SLE from five MENA countries (Türkiye, Iran, Egypt, Israel, and Tunisia), were analyzed. The pooled all-cause mortality rate was 9.9% (95% CI: 7.2%-14.0%; I² = 89.7%). Survival remained high at 5 years (93.9%) and 10 years (90.0%), but declined at 15 years (85.5%) and 20 years (71.7%), with long-term estimates highly sensitive to single-study exclusion. Leave-one-out analysis slightly increased survival estimates and reduced heterogeneity. Major mortality predictors included renal involvement, cardiovascular disease, infections, hypertension, diabetes, hematologic abnormalities, and male sex. Higher cumulative corticosteroid and cyclophosphamide exposure was linked to increased mortality, whereas hydroxychloroquine and azathioprine appeared protective. Infection was the leading cause of death, followed by active disease, renal failure, and cardiovascular complications. Patients with SLE in the MENA region show high short-term survival, but long-term outcomes remain variable. Mortality is mainly driven by renal, cardiovascular, and infectious complications, with treatment exposure contributing to risk. These findings highlight the need for multicenter registries, standardized reporting, and strategies to reduce infection burden and optimize nephritis care.
PMID:42329420 | DOI:10.1007/s00296-026-06181-6