Diabetes Res Clin Pract. 2026 May 16:113324. doi: 10.1016/j.diabres.2026.113324. Online ahead of print.
ABSTRACT
PURPOSE: To investigate the trends and sex-specific risk factors of early-onset type 2 diabetes in northwest China.
METHODS: Using the Northwest China Tianshan Cohort (2019-2023; ∼10 million/year), we analyzed adults aged 18-39 years. Annual prevalence of early-onset type 2 diabetes, defined by objective indicators, and trends were calculated. The association between risk factors candidates and disease was modelled using Cox proportional hazard regression. The hazard ratio (HR) was estimated in overall population, and stratified by sex.
RESULTS: Among 9,641,234 participants, 4,130,431 were retained. Early-onset type 2 diabetes prevalence rose from 1.50% to a 2022 peak of 2.25%, highest in men and the 35-39 years. Older age, male, lower education, civil servant, divorced/widowed, higher BMI, and current smoker were significantly associated with a higher risk, with most associations in a dose-dependent manner. These associations were largely consistent between sexes, with a few exceptions in BMI subgroups.
CONCLUSIONS: This large population-based cohort study shows early-onset type 2 diabetes increased by 50% from 2019 to 2022 in northwest China. Obesity and low education emerged as the strongest modifiable risk factors, and male showed the highest overall risk. These findings reveal an accelerating diabetes epidemic, prompting immediate screening for high-risk groups.
PMID:42144064 | DOI:10.1016/j.diabres.2026.113324