Diabetes Res Clin Pract. 2025 Dec 31:113079. doi: 10.1016/j.diabres.2025.113079. Online ahead of print.
ABSTRACT
AIMS: Early detection of impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) is critical for preventing overt diabetes and cardiovascular disease. Few studies have evaluated the predictors of the transition from normal glucose tolerance (NGT) to glucose intolerance (GI; IGT or type 2 diabetes, and/or impaired fasting glucose). We conducted a 5-year prospective study of individuals with NGT to evaluate the predictors of GI development.
METHODS: A 75-g oral glucose tolerance test was performed to diagnose GI. We enrolled 1,008 Japanese individuals with NGT who completed a 5-year follow-up. Using logistic regression analyses, we explored the predictive factors for GI development and assessed the single-nucleotide polymorphisms of type 2 diabetes susceptibility.
RESULTS: We identified the 1-h plasma glucose (1-h PG) level and age interaction as predictors of GI development. In the stratified analysis, the sex-and body mass index-adjusted odds ratios for GI development in individuals with 1-h PG ≥ 8.3 mmol/L and age ≥ 57 years was 12.9 (95 % CI: 5.7-29.2) compared to the reference. Genetic risk was associated with the aggravation of 1-h PG levels.
CONCLUSIONS: The combination of 1-h PG and age serves as a potential predictor of GI development in individuals with NGT.
PMID:41482213 | DOI:10.1016/j.diabres.2025.113079