Sex Med. 2026 Jun 16;14(4):qfag045. doi: 10.1093/sexmed/qfag045. eCollection 2026 Aug.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Human papillomavirus (HPV) infections that cause cervical cancer (CC) are transmitted through sexual contact. Certain sexual behaviors influence the risk of HPV acquisition and transmission.
AIM: This study aimed to evaluate the global burden, temporal trends, and future projections of CC attributable to sexually acquired HPV infections among individuals aged 10-54 years to optimize prevention strategies.
METHODS: Data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021. We analyzed deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) associated with CC linked to sexual transmission of HPV in the 10-54 age-group, stratified by age, Sociodemographic Index, and GBD region. The estimated annual percentage change was utilized to analyze trends from 1990 to 2021. Furthermore, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were applied to predict the disease burden trajectory through 2050.
OUTCOMES: The primary outcomes assessed were the absolute counts and age-standardized rates (ASRs) of CC-related deaths and DALYs attributed to sexual transmission of HPV.
RESULTS: In 2021, there were 117 060 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 106 690-128 467) CC deaths and 5 572 161 (95% UI, 5 057 538-6 116 191) DALYs globally among individuals aged 10-54 due to sexually acquired HPV infections. While the absolute numbers of deaths and DALYs increased by 23.9% and 23.1%, respectively compared to 1990, the age-standardized death and DALY rates significantly declined to 2.31 and 110.12 per 100 000. India and China bore the highest absolute burden, whereas Southern sub-Saharan Africa exhibited the highest standardized rates. Conversely, the Middle East and North Africa region reported the lowest burden. ARIMA models predict an increasing global burden in this demographic between 2021 and 2050.
CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: Targeted public health policies and increased HPV vaccination coverage are urgently required, particularly in high-burden, low- and middle-income regions, to counteract the projected rise in CC cases associated with sexual transmission of HPV.
STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS: This study provides valuable insights into the HPV-associated burden of CC over 3 decades; however, it is limited by the GBD's reliance on a standardized risk factor definition that may not capture all local behavioral nuances, potential underreporting in historical data due to undeveloped registry systems, reliance on modeling for data-scarce regions, and incomplete global data on HPV vaccine coverage.
CONCLUSION: While ASRs of CC associated with sexually acquired HPV are declining, the absolute burden remains substantial and geographically disparate, highlighting the need for sustained global intervention.
PMID:42312021 | PMC:PMC13271409 | DOI:10.1093/sexmed/qfag045