Int J Cardiol Cardiovasc Risk Prev. 2026 Feb 11;29:200596. doi: 10.1016/j.ijcrp.2026.200596. eCollection 2026 Jun.
ABSTRACT
INTRODUCTION: Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the foremost cause of death globally, with a disproportionately high burden in low- and middle-income countries. In Africa, CVDs pose a significant and growing public health challenge, and hypertension being a leading cause of cardiac complications. This systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted to estimate the pooled prevalence of high 10-year CVD risk and associated determinants among hypertensive patients in Africa.
METHODS: Peer-reviewed literature was systematically identified through a search of multiple bibliographic databases, including MEDLINE/PubMed, Google Scholar, Web of Science, and AJOL. Data were extracted into a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet and subsequently analyzed in STATA 17. To evaluate heterogeneity across the selected studies, the Cochrane Q test and I2 statistic were utilized. Furthermore, the potential for publication bias was examined using Egger's test and visual inspection of funnel plots.
RESULTS: The pooled estimate revealed that 26% (95% CI: 22-30%) of hypertensive patients in Africa were at high risk of developing a CVD within ten years. Factors significantly associated with high cardiovascular risk included age >64 years (AOR = 3.34, 95% CI: 1.69-4.98), male sex (AOR = 2.74, 95% CI: 1.51-3.98), unable to read and write (AOR = 5.13, 95% CI: 1.39-8.86), urban residence (AOR = 1.88, 95% CI: 1.48-2.27), smoking (AOR = 4.64, 95% CI: 2.9-6.38), and the presence of chronic comorbidities (AOR = 2.88, 95% CI: 1.88-3.89).
CONCLUSION: This systematic review and meta-analysis concluded that a substantial proportion of hypertensive patients in Africa are at high-risk of CVD within a decade. This risk is influenced by a range of demographic, clinical, and socioeconomic factors. The significant heterogeneity observed across studies underscores the need for decentralized, country-specific data and interventions. Future research should prioritize prospective cohort studies to better understand the determinants of CVD risk and evaluate the effectiveness of tailored strategies to mitigate the escalating burden of cardiovascular disease in Africa.
PMID:41738065 | PMC:PMC12927065 | DOI:10.1016/j.ijcrp.2026.200596