Arq Bras Cardiol. 2026 Apr;123(4):e20250699. doi: 10.36660/abc.20250699.
ABSTRACT
Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) have consistently been the leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, with an increasing burden driven by demographic aging. Although Brazil mirrors this global pattern, this burden may be unevenly distributed across its macroregions. The main objective of this work is to investigate the trends in CVD prevalence in the macroregions of Brazil from 1990 to 2021 and to forecast scenarios to 2050, considering demographic aging. Crude and age-standardized prevalence rates were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease study. Neural state-space models were used to forecast trends to 2050, with 95% confidence intervals estimated via a Monte Carlo-like approach. Crude prevalence rates tend to rise substantially across all macroregions until 2050, with the central-west expected to see the highest rise (64.6% [52.3-79.5]) and the northeast the lowest (39.2% [33.4-46.5]). In contrast, age-standardized rates are expected to remain largely constant across the years, with only a modest increase observed in the northeast (<7%). Even under relatively constant age-standardized rates, health systems are expected to face growing clinical and economic challenges associated with an older and more multimorbid population. Regional disparities underscore the need for tailored prevention strategies to mitigate the burden of CVD in Brazil.
PMID:42340014 | DOI:10.36660/abc.20250699